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Triple Crown Collapse: Big Brown Comes in Dead Last at Belmont Stakes |
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Anybody who bets on a 3 year old in the late spring at 1-4 odds deserves to lose. At that age, these horses are like growing teenagers. You can make rough estimates on how they’ll do based on their past performances, but not exact ones — especially when they are all being asked to go 1 1/2 miles for the first time in their young lives. These horses are growing at different rates and it isn’t that unusual for one to develop almost overnight — like the scrawny kid who leaves school in June and returns in August or September as a much taller, buff kid.
Based on his record, BB, deserved a bet at about 3-1 or 7-2, but not at $2 to net $0.50. That’s nuts. Like in so many other Belmonts, betting on all the horses at 10-1 or over would have netted you a tidy profit.
All the horses looked like they were under more stress than they were comfortable with, even the ones out front. And, since Big Brown’s said to have had his last dose of steroids in “April,” that’d make the crash-coming-down experience just about now. I’m glad to read the jockey “took care of him” and didn’t thrash Big Brown, very glad. I also thought the certainty by the handler earlier that Brown was going to win the Triple Crown was probably a good indication that he wouldn’t win — never reliable when someone appears so sure like that, except when they aren’t and want to appear that they are. Give this horse a lot of credit, he’s truly a wonderful mover, but I wonder what racing would be if steroids were not used on so many of these horses. When they ARE used, the horses (like humans) undergo a predictable crash that lasts months and starts a few months after the drugs are administered. I hope Big Brown is given a lot of pasture time to rest and relax.
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Ouch LOTS of money lost today.